To start off, I want to make it clear that this is not a ranking based on power. This is not a compilation of the best eight college basketball teams according to my perspective, nor is it a list of the teams I anticipate to be in the top eight a month from now.
This is a compilation of the top eight teams with the highest chances of winning the national championship in seven weeks. It is guaranteed that the team that emerges victorious at State Farm Stadium will be included in this list.
Let us begin.
1. Connecticut Huskies (24-3, 14-2)
Do not allow the unexpected defeat at Creighton on Tuesday night to influence your decision: UConn remained the top team in college basketball this year and is the most probable team to win the championship in Phoenix.
Should this occur, the Huskies will make history as the first team to win back-to-back national championships since Billy Donovan and Florida in 2006 and 2007.
It can be stated that the current UConn team is significantly more powerful (with a noticeable difference) than the one that achieved a record-breaking victory at the NCAA tournament in 2023.
Danny Hurley’s squad appears to have improved significantly on the offensive end. Tristen Newton, who was once a major uncertainty for the team, has now established himself as a versatile first-team All-American. Freshman Stephon Castle has also made a name for himself and is projected to be a top 10 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer is known for his deadly three-pointers and is often the target of opposing fans’ animosity. Alex Karaban is a reliable player who can perform at a star level on any given night. And if Donovan Clingan were not injured, he would be a dominant force in the paint.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (23-3, 12-3)
If you were to apply the same Profile of Purdue to the names “Duke Blue Devils” or “Michigan State Spartans”, there would be no question of your position as the top candidate to win in early April.
Regrettably, Purdue’s standing continues to progress independently.
Matt Painter and his team, the Boilermakers, have consistently been a single-digit seed in the past eight NCAA tournaments and a top-four seed in the last six. However, they have only managed to advance past the sweet 16 once during this time. They have also been eliminated six times by teams with less resources and in the last three years, their season has ended with a 13 seed, a 15 seed, and most notably, a 16 seed.
However, there is evidence to suggest that order will be reinstated and that Purdue’s playoffs will more accurately reflect the regular season this time.
3. Houston Cougars (23-3, 10-3) USA
The transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 did not “de-mystify” Kelvin Sampson’s team as anticipated. In fact, it appears to have only bolstered their strength.
Houston ranks first in nearly all advanced metrics worldwide, remaining undefeated in home games this season and boasting the strongest defense under Sampson’s leadership in Bayou City.
UH possesses the necessary talent to secure six victories within a span of three weeks. This is largely due to the presence of all-American contender Jamal Shead. Although Baylor transfer L. J. Cryer holds the title of top scorer, Shead is the individual who can single-handedly take on a previously evenly-matched game.
4. Arizona Wildcats (20-5, 11-3)
The last time a West Coast team won the national championship in men’s college basketball was in 1997 when Lute Olson and Arizona surprised Kentucky. This season, the Wildcats (Arizona, not Kentucky) appear to have the strongest chance of bringing the title back to the West Coast.
Tommy Lloyd’s initial two and a half years in Tucson were a remarkable triumph. He guided the Wildcats to a top seed in 2022, followed by a No. 2 seed last year. Currently, if the season were to conclude, Arizona would be the fourth team chosen by the selection committee for the first line.
Regrettably, he has not achieved success in the top-tier NCAA tournaments. Zona suffered a defeat from fifth-seeded Sweet 16 from North Carolina two years ago, followed by a loss to 15th seeded Princeton in the first round in March of last year.
5. Tennessee Volunteers (20-6, 10-3)
On that note, it is necessary to let go of the past in order to envision a scenario where one team emerges victorious in all aspects.
Tennessee has yet to compete in a Final Four.
Rick Barnes leads a team this season that has the potential to reach this stage and cause even more destruction afterwards.
A year ago, there were numerous claims that Tennessee would break records with its adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite eliminating the renowned Duke in the second round, the team’s lack of offense ultimately led to their defeat against Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16.
6. North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3)
North Carolina’s claim as a true national championship contender is currently facing challenges, as the Tar Heels have been trading wins and losses in the Atlantic Coast Conference over the past three weeks.
However, as witnessed in Hubert Davis’ initial year as head coach at UNC, the March background holds significance.
R. J. Davis is a strong contender for the title of ACC Player of the Year and is a top candidate for the “Kemba” award in March. Armando Bacot has consistently achieved double-doubles in March since playing alongside Ed Cota, and it is expected that this March will be no different. While his three-point shooting has not been as strong this season compared to his college career, Cormac Ryan has the potential to be this team’s Brady Manek when it counts.
7. Kansas Jayhawks (20-6, 8-5) USA
Although they have already suffered five losses in conference games and are not currently ranked in the Top 15, this team shares a special connection with the Kansas City Chiefs that I cannot overlook. It seems as though they are patiently waiting for the crucial games to come.
To begin with, this is the sole team in the nation that possesses two players who have the potential to be selected as first-team All-Americans. Throughout the entire season, Kevin McCullar (19.0 ppg) held the title of top scorer for the team, while Hunter Dickinson (18.2 ppg/11.0 rpg) solidified his position as the most sought-after player in the transfer portal.
8. Duke Blue Devils (20-5, 11-3)
I was having difficulty with the final spot on this List.
Alabama, Auburn, Marquette, Illinois, Iowa State, Creighton, and Kentucky all closely observed each other, but ultimately, the team I couldn’t let go of was the one that would have been on any list four months ago.
Herzog and Kansas have both been underwhelming, falling short of their high preseason expectations. The Blue Devils have dealt with some minor setbacks and lack a standout performance that would justify their potential to win it all.
